Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching2.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Paul DeJongBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shinnosuke OgasawaraPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9DeJong homered to left (385 feet), García Jr. scored and Abrams scored.11–9
- 8Bader hit sacrifice fly to left, Schwarber scored.11–6
- 8Harper singled to left, Turner scored, Schwarber to second.10–6
- 6Castellanos homered to left center (428 feet).9–6
- 4Wilson singled to left, Bohm scored and Castellanos scored, Bader to third.8–6
- 3Tena doubled to center, Crews scored.6–6
- 3Crews doubled to left, DeJong scored and Lile scored.6–5
- 3Lile singled to right, Abrams scored and García Jr. scored, DeJong to third.6–3
- 3Abrams singled to center, Hassell III scored, García Jr. to second.6–1
- 2Bohm homered to left center (395 feet), Schwarber scored and Harper scored.6–0
- 2Harper singled to center, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.3–0
- 2Schwarber singled to right, Marchán scored, Turner to third.2–0
- 1Bohm grounded into fielder's choice to third, Turner scored on error, Harper safe at third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 65%
- ML PHI -200 / WSH +180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -187
- WSH +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.9 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −18 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +76 Elo | PHI 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 6th of 3033–32 | Road vs home | 24–3729th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301538 | Elo rating | 144428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–62 | 61–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 45–54 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 59–43 |
| Overs–unders | 54–69 | 66–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 21–14 WSH in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 35.