Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Langeliers homered to right center (401 feet), Kurtz scored.4–2
- 5Lee doubled to center, Larnach scored.2–2
- 5Larnach singled to left, Outman scored.2–1
- 4Soderstrom homered to center (426 feet).2–0
- 2Hernaiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Soderstrom scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML ATH +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.5 – 5.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −7 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3031–33 | Road vs home | 33–2918th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 25th of 301468 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–59 | 62–63 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 30–39 |
| Underdog | 53–40 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–59 | 57–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 4–14 MIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 18.
