Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6B. Harris singled to center, Hernaiz scored.6–3
- 5Jeffers homered to left (371 feet).5–3
- 4Lee homered to right center (393 feet).5–2
- 4Kurtz doubled to right, Hernaiz scored, Urías to third.5–1
- 4Urías singled to right, Butler scored, Hernaiz to second.4–1
- 4B. Harris hit sacrifice fly to second, Soderstrom scored, Butler to third.3–1
- 3Langeliers homered to left (402 feet), Kurtz scored.2–1
- 2Wallner doubled to right, Lee scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 58%
- ML ATH +130 / MIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -140
- ATH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.9 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +15 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +33 Elo | MIN 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3030–33 | Road vs home | 33–2815th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 25th of 301466 | Elo rating | 148423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–59 | 62–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 30–38 |
| Underdog | 52–40 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders | 67–59 | 56–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–14 MIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 17.
