Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schwarber homered to right (340 feet), Turner scored.2–11
- 8Turner reached on infield single to second, Kepler scored.2–9
- 7Harper singled to left, Schwarber scored.2–8
- 7Schwarber singled to right, Stott scored on error and Turner scored on error, Schwarber safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Raley.2–7
- 7Turner reached on infield single to shortstop, Bader scored, Stott to third.2–5
- 7Stott singled to left, Marsh scored, Bader to third.2–4
- 7Suárez homered to left (382 feet).2–3
- 4Kepler homered to right (355 feet).1–3
- 2Stott doubled to right, Bader scored.1–2
- 1Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.1–1
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (363 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML SEA +120 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- SEA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 3031–33 | Road vs home | 39–213rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15433rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–74 | 64–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–55 | 48–54 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 69–58 | 57–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–5 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.