Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lewis doubled to left, Clemens scored.8–3
- 7Schuemann singled to right, MacIver scored.8–2
- 6Kurtz homered to center (425 feet).7–2
- 4Martin reached on infield single to shortstop, Keaschall scored, Outman to second, Clemens out at home on runner's fielder's choice.6–2
- 4Outman reached on infield single to second, Lee scored, Clemens to second, Keaschall to third.6–1
- 2Cortes singled to center, Soderstrom scored, Hernaiz to second.6–0
- 2Hernaiz singled to center, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to second.5–0
- 2Rooker doubled to left, Butler scored.4–0
- 2Butler doubled to left, Kurtz scored, MacIver scored and B. Harris scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 52%
- ML ATH -120 / MIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- ATH: Elo 47.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Jose Urena: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3032–33 | Road vs home | 33–3018th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 25th of 301470 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–59 | 62–64 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 30–40 |
| Underdog | 54–40 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–60 | 57–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–14 MIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.