Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Langeliers doubled to right, Thomas scored.2–1
- 6Arozarena homered to left (392 feet).1–1
- 4Hernaiz singled to center, Wilson scored, Hernaiz to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML ATH +145 / SEA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 60.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -156
- ATH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.8 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +4 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +75 Elo | SEA 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 9th of 3033–34 | Road vs home | 38–2510th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 25th of 301472 | Elo rating | 151512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–59 | 53–76 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 16–19 | 24–56 |
| Underdog | 55–40 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 69–61 | 70–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 10–27 SEA in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 37.