Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wilson grounded out to second, Thomas scored.4–11
- 7Urías hit by pitch, Bleday scored, B. Harris to second, MacIver to third.3–11
- 7MacIver singled to left, Wilson scored, Bleday to third.2–11
- 3Naylor doubled to center, Rodríguez scored and Arozarena scored.1–11
- 3Rodríguez singled to center, Crawford scored and Robles scored, Arozarena to second.1–9
- 3Robles singled to left, Garver scored and Polanco scored, Crawford to second.1–7
- 2Raleigh homered to left center (412 feet), Arozarena scored.1–5
- 2Arozarena doubled to center, Polanco scored.1–3
- 2Wilson homered to left (392 feet).1–2
- 1Raleigh homered to left (448 feet), Arozarena scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML ATH +150 / SEA -180
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -161
- ATH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −9 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +33 Elo | SEA 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 6th of 3034–34 | Road vs home | 38–2611th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 24th of 301473 | Elo rating | 151312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–59 | 53–77 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 16–19 | 24–57 |
| Underdog | 56–40 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 69–62 | 70–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 11–27 SEA in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 38.