Detroit Tigers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kurtz homered to left center (380 feet), Butler scored.3–8
- 7Langeliers homered to left center (450 feet), Hernaiz scored, Soderstrom scored and B. Harris scored.3–6
- 7Thomas homered to left center (397 feet).3–2
- 6Wilson grounded out to second, Bleday scored.3–1
- 6Pérez doubled to right, Carpenter scored and Greene scored.3–0
- 6Torres homered to left center (417 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 66%
- ML DET -215 / ATH +180
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- DET: Elo 58.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -191
- ATH +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.5 – 4.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −2 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +57 Elo | DET 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3034–29 | Road vs home | 26–3728th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 147124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–68 | 72–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 45–49 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | 56–41 |
| Overs–unders | 72–60 | 70–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–8 ATH in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.
