Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torkelson homered to right center (377 feet).10–8
- 7Garcia homered to left center (389 feet).10–7
- 6Isbel scored on Holton wild pitch, Witt Jr. to second on wild pitch by Holton.9–7
- 6Isbel scored on Holton wild pitch, Witt Jr. to second on wild pitch by Holton.9–7
- 6Isbel singled to left, Frazier scored and India scored, Isbel to second.8–7
- 5McKinstry singled to left, Dingler scored.6–7
- 5Dingler doubled to left, Greene scored.6–6
- 5Pérez homered to right center (413 feet).6–5
- 4Jones doubled to center, Greene scored, McKinstry scored and Dingler scored.6–4
- 3Frazier doubled to right, Perez scored, Frazier safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Jones.6–1
- 3Perez doubled to center, Garcia scored.5–1
- 3Pasquantino homered to right (429 feet), Witt Jr. scored.4–1
- 3Witt Jr. singled to left, Yastrzemski scored.2–1
- 3Yastrzemski doubled to center, Maile scored.1–1
- 2Greene homered to right center (389 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML KC +130 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- DET: Elo 55.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −11 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +38 Elo | DET 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 16th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 44–245th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–66 | 64–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 45–48 |
| Underdog | 41–30 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 57–73 | 71–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 12–23 DET in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 35.