Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. homered to center (449 feet), Yastrzemski scored.2–5
- 7India hit by pitch, Pasquantino scored, Grichuk to second, Garcia to third.2–3
- 6Yastrzemski homered to right (405 feet).2–2
- 4Pederson homered to right (428 feet).2–1
- 1Pasquantino homered to right center (409 feet).1–1
- 1Seager homered to center (426 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML TEX -115 / KC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 47.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −12 | TEX: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +16 Elo | KC 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 25th of 3025–38 | Road vs home | 34–2916th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301506 | Elo rating | 150714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–61 | 62–63 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 21–35 |
| Underdog | 36–24 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 55–71 | 54–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–6 KC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.