Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Royals- Adam FrazierBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Frazier homered to right (374 feet), Perez scored.2–6
- 8Perez singled to center, Garcia scored.2–4
- 8Garcia singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.2–3
- 7India homered to left center (451 feet), Frazier scored.2–2
- 6Quero singled to left, Benintendi scored.2–0
- 1Sosa homered to left center (426 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 60%
- ML CHW +140 / KC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- KC: Elo 63.5%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -153
- CHW +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 5.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +2 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +96 Elo | KC 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–43 | Road vs home | 32–2918th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301427 | Elo rating | 150418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–52 | 61–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 20–34 |
| Underdog | 71–47 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 59–64 | 54–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 9–26 KC in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 35.