Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-4
- Jack LeiterPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Royals- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tellez grounded out to third, Langford scored.3–4
- 6Carter singled to left, Langford scored.2–4
- 5Garcia homered to left (352 feet).1–4
- 3Pasquantino homered to right (374 feet), Witt Jr. scored.1–3
- 2Heim singled to center, Semien scored, Pederson to third.1–1
- 1Yastrzemski homered to right center (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML TEX +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- KC: Elo 52.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −1 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +20 Elo | KC 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3025–37 | Road vs home | 33–2918th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–61 | 62–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 21–34 |
| Underdog | 35–24 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 55–70 | 54–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–5 KC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.