Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-5
- Patrick CorbinPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Maile walked, Perez scored, India to second, Isbel to third.4–6
- 5Pasquantino homered to right center (407 feet).4–5
- 5Smith singled to right, Carter scored and Duran scored, Tellez to second.4–4
- 5Tellez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Seager scored, Carter safe at second on error by shortstop Witt Jr., Duran to third.2–4
- 4Garcia singled to right, Loftin scored.1–4
- 4Tolbert hit sacrifice fly to center, India scored, Loftin to third.1–3
- 3Perez singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.1–2
- 3Pederson singled to center, Langford scored, Seager to second.1–1
- 2Loftin homered to left (417 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML TEX +100 / KC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- KC: Elo 55.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +3 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +37 Elo | KC 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–39 | Road vs home | 35–3016th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–62 | 63–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 22–36 |
| Underdog | 37–25 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 56–72 | 55–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–7 KC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.