Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LatzPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Higashioka doubled to left, Langford scored, Semien scored and Seager scored.6–3
- 7Seager singled to right, Heim scored, Langford to second.3–3
- 3Semien singled to center, Langford scored.2–3
- 1Pasquantino homered to right center (425 feet), Yastrzemski scored and Witt Jr. scored.1–3
- 1Langford homered to left (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 57%
- ML TEX +120 / KC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- KC: Elo 56.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -130
- TEX +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +13 | TEX: Caleb Boushley (no track record yet) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +44 Elo | KC 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3025–39 | Road vs home | 35–2915th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 17th of 301504 | Elo rating | 150914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–62 | 63–63 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 22–35 |
| Underdog | 36–25 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 55–72 | 54–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–7 KC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.