Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino homered to right (411 feet), Grichuk scored.5–7
- 7Pérez singled to left, Torres scored, Torkelson to second.3–7
- 7Torres doubled to left, Ibáñez scored.3–6
- 7Ibáñez singled to left, Báez scored.3–5
- 7Báez singled to right, McKinstry scored on throwing error by right fielder Grichuk, Báez to third.3–4
- 6Greene homered to right center (435 feet), Torres scored.3–3
- 3McKinstry homered to right center (383 feet).3–1
- 3Perez doubled to left, Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.3–0
- 3Witt Jr. singled to center, Isbel scored, Witt Jr. to second, Yastrzemski to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML KC +125 / DET -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- DET: Elo 53.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- KC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −4 | KC: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +25 Elo | DET 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 3030–32 | Road vs home | 42–246th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15238th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–64 | 62–67 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 43–48 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 56–72 | 70–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 12–21 DET in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 33.