Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ibáñez homered to left center (378 feet).2–4
- 6Witt Jr. homered to left (373 feet).2–3
- 5Rogers singled to center, McKinstry scored, Rogers safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr..1–3
- 4Torkelson homered to left center (408 feet).1–2
- 4Pasquantino doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.1–1
- 3Rogers doubled to left, Báez scored, Rogers thrown out at third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML KC +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- DET: Elo 54.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −3 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +34 Elo | DET 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 3030–33 | Road vs home | 43–245th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15258th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–65 | 63–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 44–48 |
| Underdog | 41–29 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 57–72 | 71–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 12–22 DET in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 34.