Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler doubled to center, Bleday scored.9–6
- 9Jung doubled to center, A. García scored.9–5
- 8Cortes doubled to center, Soderstrom scored.8–5
- 8Soderstrom doubled to left, Wilson scored.8–4
- 8Rooker grounded out to shortstop, Butler scored, Wilson to third.8–3
- 8Wilson doubled to left, B. Harris scored and Gelof scored, Butler to third.8–2
- 8Langford hit sacrifice fly to right, Heim scored, Helman to third.8–0
- 7A. García singled to right, Helman scored, Langford to second, Smith to third.7–0
- 7Langford walked, Duran scored, Smith to second, Helman to third.6–0
- 5Pederson doubled to left, Smith scored.5–0
- 5Smith doubled to right, Helman scored.4–0
- 2Jung homered to left center (405 feet).3–0
- 1Pederson homered to right (418 feet), Smith scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML TEX -150 / ATH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.1 – 4.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +30 Elo | TEX 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 3028–40 | Road vs home | 29–3927th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 11th of 301518 | Elo rating | 147425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–65 | 75–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 34–39 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 59–42 |
| Overs–unders | 61–76 | 73–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 23–15 ATH in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 38.