Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Christian MooreBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching3.1 IP, 10 ER, 1 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting4-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jacob LatzPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Higashioka homered to left center (386 feet), Jung scored and Tellez scored.3–20
- 7Jung singled to center, A. García scored.3–17
- 7Pederson grounded out to shortstop, Duran scored, A. García to third.3–16
- 7A. García doubled to left, Smith scored and Helman scored, Duran to third.3–15
- 7Duran singled to center, Osuna scored, Helman to second, Smith to third.3–13
- 7Neto doubled to left, Peraza scored, Teodosio to third.3–12
- 5Duran doubled to left, Langford scored.2–12
- 5Moore homered to center (401 feet).2–11
- 4Higashioka reached on infield single to second, Pederson scored, Jung to third.1–11
- 4Pederson singled to right, A. García scored.1–10
- 4Seager homered to right center (424 feet), Langford scored.1–9
- 2Pederson homered to right (366 feet), Langford scored and Seager scored.1–7
- 1Higashioka hit sacrifice fly to center, Pederson scored.1–4
- 1A. García homered to center (421 feet), Langford scored and Seager scored.1–3
- 1Adell doubled to center, Ward scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML LAA +135 / TEX -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 62.3%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -146
- LAA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +4 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob Latz: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +87 Elo | TEX 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3028–35 | Road vs home | 41–2710th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 151013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–63 | 69–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 32–39 |
| Underdog | 58–37 | 37–26 |
| Overs–unders | 74–58 | 59–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 15–23 TEX in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 38.