Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting2-3
- Gavin WilliamsPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Rowdy TellezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pederson homered to right (409 feet).0–5
- 4Langford singled to right, Jung scored and Duran scored.0–4
- 4Tellez homered to center (426 feet), A. García scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML CLE +110 / TEX -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +28 Elo | TEX 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3033–33 | Road vs home | 39–2610th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Elo rating | 150914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–65 | 67–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 30–38 |
| Underdog | 42–27 | 37–26 |
| Overs–unders | 61–67 | 58–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–7 TEX in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.