Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-1
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Duran grounded out to third, Helman scored.0–10
- 5A. García homered to left (377 feet), Jung scored.0–9
- 4Duran doubled to left, Freeman scored and Heim scored.0–7
- 3Jung homered to left center (390 feet), Higashioka scored.0–5
- 3Higashioka grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Langford scored, Seager out at second.0–3
- 2Freeman homered to left (385 feet), Jung scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML CLE +115 / TEX -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3033–32 | Road vs home | 38–2611th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Elo rating | 150614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–64 | 66–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 29–38 |
| Underdog | 42–26 | 37–26 |
| Overs–unders | 60–67 | 57–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–6 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.