Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pederson doubled to right, Seager scored.3–4
- 9Seager singled to center, Langford scored, Seager to second.3–3
- 8Ramírez doubled to right, Jones scored and Rocchio scored, Kwan to third.3–2
- 6Langford homered to left center (398 feet).1–2
- 5Tellez homered to left (349 feet).1–1
- 2Kayfus doubled to left, Santana scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML CLE +135 / TEX -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -145
- CLE +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.3 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +14 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +50 Elo | TEX 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3033–31 | Road vs home | 37–2611th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–64 | 66–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 29–37 |
| Underdog | 41–26 | 37–26 |
| Overs–unders | 60–66 | 57–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–5 TEX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.