Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-2
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Hoppe homered to center (407 feet).4–0
- 6d'Arnaud doubled to right, Ward scored.3–0
- 4d'Arnaud singled to center, Ward scored, d'Arnaud to second, Rengifo to third.2–0
- 1Neto homered to left center (384 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 63%
- ML LAA +160 / TEX -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 61.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -170
- LAA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +84 Elo | TEX 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 3027–34 | Road vs home | 40–2610th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 27th of 301455 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–62 | 68–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 31–38 |
| Underdog | 57–36 | 37–26 |
| Overs–unders | 73–57 | 58–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 14–22 TEX in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 36.