Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Michael HelmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell homered to left (408 feet), Trout scored.3–7
- 9Neto homered to left center (396 feet).1–7
- 7Seager homered to right (376 feet).0–7
- 4Higashioka homered to left center (421 feet).0–6
- 2Helman homered to left center (383 feet), Heim scored.0–5
- 1Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, A. García scored.0–3
- 1Jung singled to left, Seager scored, A. García to third.0–2
- 1A. García doubled to right, Langford scored, Seager to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML LAA -105 / TEX -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −17 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +52 Elo | TEX 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 3028–34 | Road vs home | 40–2711th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 27th of 301458 | Elo rating | 150814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–62 | 68–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 31–39 |
| Underdog | 58–36 | 37–26 |
| Overs–unders | 73–58 | 58–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 15–22 TEX in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 37.