Detroit Tigers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-3
- Casey MizePitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis MoralesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gelof doubled to center, B. Harris scored and Bleday scored.0–7
- 4B. Harris scored on error, Gelof safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Mize.0–5
- 2Rooker hit sacrifice fly to center, Kurtz scored.0–4
- 2Gelof homered to left center (400 feet), B. Harris scored.0–3
- 1Soderstrom singled to left, Kurtz scored, Langeliers to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML DET -130 / ATH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- DET: Elo 51.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.4 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +14 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Morales: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +8 Elo | DET 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3034–31 | Road vs home | 28–3727th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 10th of 301520 | Elo rating | 147523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–70 | 74–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 45–51 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | 58–41 |
| Overs–unders | 74–60 | 72–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–10 ATH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 18.
