Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Michael HelmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Helman homered to left (389 feet), Tellez scored.5–2
- 5Heim homered to left center (392 feet).3–2
- 3Rooker doubled to left, Gelof scored and Kurtz scored, Langeliers to third.2–2
- 2Moore singled to left, Higashioka scored, Moore out stretching at second, Freeman to third.2–0
- 2Heim hit sacrifice fly to right, Jung scored, Higashioka to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 57%
- ML TEX +125 / ATH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- ATH: Elo 46.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATH -135
- TEX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.9 – 5.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −3 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 26th of 3026–40 | Road vs home | 29–3727th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 147823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–65 | 75–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 33–39 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 37–26 | 59–41 |
| Overs–unders | 60–75 | 72–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 21–15 ATH in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 36.