Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason BarnettPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moore homered to center (403 feet), A. García scored.9–3
- 7Cortes doubled to right, Bleday scored.7–3
- 7Higashioka singled to left, Jung scored.7–2
- 7Jung doubled to right, Pederson scored.6–2
- 5Langford homered to left (364 feet).5–2
- 3Rooker homered to left center (405 feet).4–2
- 3Butler homered to center (448 feet).4–1
- 3Jung doubled to center, Langford scored, Tellez to third.4–0
- 2Helman doubled to center, Higashioka scored and Jung scored.3–0
- 2Higashioka singled to right, A. García scored, Jung to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML TEX -135 / ATH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.5 – 5.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | TEX: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Mason Barnett (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +21 Elo | TEX 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–40 | Road vs home | 29–3827th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 147624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–65 | 75–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 33–39 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 59–41 |
| Overs–unders | 60–76 | 72–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 22–15 ATH in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 37.