Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 6Herrera homered to center (414 feet), Scott II scored.1–2
- 3Kurtz doubled to right, Bleday scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 51%
- ML ATH -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 44.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −4 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +39 Elo | STL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 6th of 3035–35 | Road vs home | 37–3316th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 147922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–63 | 66–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 23–43 |
| Underdog | 60–43 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders | 75–64 | 75–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–4 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.
