Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras tripled to center, Winn scored and Nootbaar scored.1–5
- 8Kurtz homered to left (394 feet).1–3
- 7Gorman homered to right center (381 feet).0–3
- 3Contreras singled to right, Winn scored and Herrera scored, Contreras thrown out at second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML ATH -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- STL: Elo 54.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- ATH -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.3 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +31 Elo | STL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 8th of 3035–36 | Road vs home | 38–3316th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 24th of 301474 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–63 | 66–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 23–44 |
| Underdog | 61–43 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders | 75–65 | 75–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–5 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
