San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman doubled to left, Freeman scored and Moniak scored.10–8
- 9Tovar hit sacrifice fly to center, Karros scored, Moniak to third.10–6
- 7Gilbert homered to right (407 feet).10–5
- 6Chapman homered to left center (423 feet), Bailey scored and Ramos scored.9–5
- 6Ramos singled to left, Matos scored, Bailey to second.6–5
- 6Bailey singled to right, Schmitt scored, Matos to third.5–5
- 5Beck singled to center, Tovar scored and Goodman scored.4–5
- 5Goodman singled to left, Freeman scored on error, Goodman safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Ramos, Tovar to third.4–3
- 5Freeman singled to center, Karros scored.4–2
- 4Doyle singled to left, Tovar scored, Goodman to third.4–1
- 3Flores singled to center, Devers scored, Chapman to third.4–0
- 3Adames hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramos scored, Devers to second.3–0
- 3Devers singled to left, Bailey scored, Ramos to third.2–0
- 2Chapman homered to center (450 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 63%
- ML SF -190 / COL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- SF: Elo 66.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 6.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −7 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +119 Elo | SF 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 7th of 3035–35 | Road vs home | 22–4930th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 138030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–80 | 68–71 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–56 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 35–24 | 66–67 |
| Overs–unders | 67–72 | 62–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 26–9 COL in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 35.