San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting2-4
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker doubled to left, Winn scored and Hampson scored, Saggese to third.2–3
- 9Saggese singled to center, Gorman scored, Hampson to second, Winn to third.2–1
- 4Gilbert doubled to left, Chapman scored.2–0
- 4Schmitt hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored, Chapman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML SF -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SF: Elo 52.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −10 | SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +17 Elo | SF 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3037–35 | Road vs home | 39–3416th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 17th of 301506 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–80 | 67–75 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–56 | 24–45 |
| Underdog | 36–24 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders | 69–72 | 76–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–6 STL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.