St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jose FerminBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to right, Garver scored, Robles to third.3–5
- 4Naylor homered to right center (415 feet).3–4
- 4Fermín reached on infield single to third, Saggese scored, Pagés to second.3–3
- 3Arozarena homered to left (405 feet), Robles scored and Crawford scored.2–3
- 2Saggese singled to center, Gorman scored.2–0
- 2Gorman doubled to left, Contreras scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 64%
- ML STL +165 / SEA -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.1%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -177
- STL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +2 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +49 Elo | SEA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3031–39 | Road vs home | 42–2711th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301479 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–77 | 59–85 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–46 | 27–63 |
| Underdog | 44–31 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders | 76–69 | 79–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–5 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.