St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Polanco hit sacrifice fly to right, Naylor scored.2–4
- 6Naylor doubled to center, Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored, Rodríguez thrown out at home.2–3
- 6Rodríguez singled to left, Rivas scored, Raleigh to second, Arozarena to third.2–1
- 4Burleson homered to center (416 feet), Herrera scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 68%
- ML STL +200 / SEA -240
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.6%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -212
- STL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +60 Elo | SEA 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3031–38 | Road vs home | 41–2711th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301481 | Elo rating | 151811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–76 | 58–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–46 | 26–63 |
| Underdog | 44–30 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders | 76–68 | 79–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–4 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.