Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tayler SaucedoPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting5-5
- Adrian HouserPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rodríguez homered to right (334 feet), Crawford scored and Raleigh scored.4–9
- 6Raleigh singled to center, Canzone scored, Crawford to second.1–9
- 5B. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, B. Seymour scored.0–9
- 2Feduccia singled to center, Caminero scored and J. Lowe scored, Mangum to third.0–8
- 2Caminero doubled to center, Simpson scored, Díaz to third.0–6
- 2B. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, B. Seymour scored, Simpson to third.0–5
- 1Feduccia hit sacrifice fly to left, J. Lowe scored.0–4
- 1Mangum singled to left, Caminero scored, J. Lowe to second.0–3
- 1J. Lowe singled to right, B. Lowe scored, Caminero to third.0–2
- 1Caminero singled to right, Díaz scored, B. Lowe to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -130 / TB +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +18 Elo | TB 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3032–38 | Road vs home | 36–3318th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–83 | 71–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–62 | 28–42 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 43–25 |
| Overs–unders | 76–63 | 62–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–9 TB in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.