Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kwan hit sacrifice fly to center, Rocchio scored.4–5
- 9Rocchio singled to left, Jones scored on error, Rocchio to second, Rocchio safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Arozarena.4–4
- 8Martínez reached on infield single to shortstop, Ramírez scored, Naylor to second.4–3
- 7Jones homered to center (402 feet).4–2
- 6Manzardo homered to right center (395 feet).4–1
- 1Polanco homered to left (348 feet), Rodríguez scored.4–0
- 1Suárez singled to center, Raleigh scored, Rodríguez to second.2–0
- 1Rodríguez singled to center, Arozarena scored, Raleigh to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML SEA -160 / CLE +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -145
- CLE +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 3.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −6 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +25 Elo | SEA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 15th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 33–3220th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 10th of 301518 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–79 | 65–67 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–59 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 43–28 |
| Overs–unders | 73–61 | 62–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 8–8 CLE in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.