Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-4
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 1Rocchio singled to right, Manzardo scored, Fry to third.0–3
- 1Naylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Kayfus scored, Manzardo to third.0–2
- 1Manzardo reached on infield single to shortstop, Kwan scored, Kayfus to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML TB -105 / CLE -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +4 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +14 Elo | CLE 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 17th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 31–3223rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 148621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–65 | 63–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–41 | 21–39 |
| Underdog | 42–24 | 42–28 |
| Overs–unders | 59–72 | 62–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–6 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.