San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arraez grounded out to second, Wagner scored, Tatis Jr. to third.6–9
- 7Laureano homered to left (380 feet).5–9
- 5Crawford singled to center, Garver scored and Polanco scored.4–9
- 5Polanco doubled to right, Suárez scored and Naylor scored, Garver to third.4–7
- 5Naylor singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Suárez to second.4–5
- 4Crawford grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Naylor scored, Polanco out at second, Garver to third.4–4
- 2Polanco homered to left (361 feet), Garver scored.4–3
- 2Tatis Jr. homered to center (416 feet), Fermin scored.4–1
- 2Cronenworth homered to right (362 feet).2–1
- 2Sheets homered to right center (404 feet).1–1
- 1Raleigh homered to left (419 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SD +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | SD: JP Sears: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +7 Elo | SD 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 15th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 39–2610th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 5th of 301539 | Elo rating | 151611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–56 | 54–77 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 32–39 | 25–57 |
| Underdog | 43–17 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 56–75 | 71–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–9 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.