San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tatis Jr. doubled to center, Cronenworth scored.3–4
- 6Cronenworth hit by pitch, O'Hearn scored, Iglesias to second, Sheets to third.2–4
- 6Sheets singled to center, Laureano scored, O'Hearn to second.1–4
- 4Suárez homered to left center (382 feet), Rodríguez scored and Naylor scored.0–4
- 2Raley doubled to right, Suárez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SD +130 / SEA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- SD +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +7 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +2 Elo | SD 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 16th of 3032–36 | Road vs home | 40–2711th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 6th of 301538 | Elo rating | 151711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–57 | 55–78 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 32–39 | 26–58 |
| Underdog | 44–18 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 58–75 | 73–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–10 SEA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.