Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rodríguez reached on infield single to second, Crawford scored and Young scored, Raleigh to second.4–2
- 5Arozarena homered to left center (421 feet), Crawford scored.2–2
- 3Schneemann homered to right center (408 feet), Kwan scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -115 / CLE -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −4 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +2 Elo | SEA 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 18th of 3031–36 | Road vs home | 35–3218th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 149120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–81 | 67–67 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 26–61 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 45–28 |
| Overs–unders | 74–62 | 63–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 8–10 CLE in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.