Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rodríguez homered to left (407 feet), Arozarena scored.3–4
- 7Kwan singled to center, Jones scored on error, Kwan safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Rodríguez, Rocchio safe at third.1–4
- 7Polanco homered to right (388 feet).1–3
- 6Manzardo homered to right (356 feet), Ramírez scored.0–3
- 4Naylor singled to center, Ramírez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML SEA -160 / CLE +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -145
- CLE +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 3.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +3 Elo | SEA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 17th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 34–3218th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–80 | 66–67 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 26–60 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 44–28 |
| Overs–unders | 74–61 | 63–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 8–9 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.