Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Leo RivasBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rays- Nick FortesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rivas homered to right center (385 feet), Suárez scored.2–10
- 8Gray homered to right center (404 feet), Fortes scored.0–10
- 7Caminero singled to center, Díaz scored.0–8
- 7Díaz doubled to right, Simpson scored and Fortes scored.0–7
- 3Caminero singled to center, B. Lowe scored, Caminero thrown out at second.0–5
- 3B. Lowe doubled to center, Díaz scored.0–4
- 2Fortes homered to right center (364 feet), Mangum scored and Palacios scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML SEA -105 / TB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- TB: Elo 51.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −10 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +7 Elo | TB 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 3032–36 | Road vs home | 34–3321st of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 11th of 301518 | Elo rating | 150715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–81 | 69–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–61 | 27–42 |
| Underdog | 30–20 | 42–25 |
| Overs–unders | 74–63 | 60–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–7 TB in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.