Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-5
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Simpson singled to left, Pereira scored, Fortes to second.4–1
- 5Pereira homered to center (421 feet).3–1
- 1García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Wood scored, Abrams to third.2–1
- 1B. Lowe homered to right center (402 feet), Díaz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TB -150 / WSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- TB: Elo 60.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −23 | TB: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +76 Elo | TB 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 19th of 3030–36 | Road vs home | 26–3929th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 143928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–67 | 65–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–42 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 42–25 | 63–49 |
| Overs–unders | 59–74 | 71–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–1 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.