Washington Nationals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching2.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chaparro homered to left (411 feet).2–11
- 6Abrams singled to left, Young scored, Wood to second.1–11
- 4Wells homered to right (368 feet).0–11
- 3Domínguez reached on infield single to third, Judge scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, Bellinger to third.0–10
- 3Rice homered to right (372 feet).0–9
- 3McMahon homered to right center (409 feet), Domínguez scored and Wells scored.0–8
- 3Domínguez hit a ground rule double, Chisholm Jr. scored.0–5
- 3Bellinger homered to right center (410 feet).0–4
- 3Judge homered to center (424 feet), Rice scored.0–3
- 1Grisham homered to right (334 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 71%
- ML WSH +230 / NYY -285
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 62.8%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -244
- WSH +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −2 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +91 Elo | NYY 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 71.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–40 | Road vs home | 40–2812th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 28th of 301441 | Elo rating | 15366th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–67 | 60–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 48–64 |
| Underdog | 63–48 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 70–62 | 64–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–4 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.