Washington Nationals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brad LordPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Young homered to right center (393 feet), DeJong scored, Crews scored and Hassell III scored.5–10
- 9Hassell III walked, Adams scored, Crews to second, DeJong to third.1–10
- 7Domínguez homered to right center (357 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored and Goldschmidt scored.0–10
- 5Chisholm Jr. homered to right (390 feet), Bellinger scored.0–7
- 5Bellinger singled to center, Grisham scored and Judge scored.0–5
- 5Judge hit a ground rule double, Caballero scored, Grisham to third.0–3
- 3Rice homered to right center (435 feet).0–2
- 1Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Rice scored, Judge to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 68%
- ML WSH +200 / NYY -240
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.1%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -212
- WSH +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 5.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +8 | WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +101 Elo | NYY 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–38 | Road vs home | 38–2813th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 28th of 301445 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–65 | 58–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 46–64 |
| Underdog | 63–46 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 69–61 | 63–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–2 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.