New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brett BatyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Josh BellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brad LordPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6McNeil doubled to left, Alonso scored and J. Soto scored.4–5
- 6Alonso doubled to right, Lindor scored, J. Soto to third.2–5
- 5Bell homered to right center (420 feet).1–5
- 5Baty homered to right center (455 feet).1–4
- 4Millas tripled to right, Crews scored.0–4
- 4Crews doubled to left, DeJong scored.0–3
- 3Bell hit sacrifice fly to center, Hassell III scored.0–2
- 3Abrams reached on infield single to first, Crews scored, Wood to second, Hassell III to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 61%
- ML NYM -175 / WSH +145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -156
- WSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 3.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +12 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +59 Elo | NYM 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3026–34 | Road vs home | 24–3929th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301518 | Elo rating | 144028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–67 | 61–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–54 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 59–45 |
| Overs–unders | 56–69 | 67–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 24–10 WSH in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 34.