New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting2-2
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil homered to right center (394 feet).8–1
- 8House grounded into double play, third to second to first, Crews scored, Chaparro out at second.7–1
- 7J. Soto homered to left (408 feet).7–0
- 6Baty homered to right center (428 feet).6–0
- 3Vientos homered to left center (419 feet), McNeil scored.5–0
- 3McNeil doubled to right, J. Soto scored and Nimmo scored.3–0
- 3Nimmo singled to center, Lindor scored, Nimmo to second, J. Soto to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML NYM -190 / WSH +160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −6 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +57 Elo | NYM 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3025–34 | Road vs home | 24–3829th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301516 | Elo rating | 144328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–67 | 61–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–54 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 59–44 |
| Overs–unders | 56–68 | 67–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 23–10 WSH in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 33.