Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shinnosuke OgasawaraPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Rafael MarchanBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9García Jr. homered to right center (414 feet).2–3
- 8Wood grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, House scored, Young out at second, Hassell III to third.1–3
- 3Marchán walked, Bohm scored, Bader to second, Marsh to third.0–3
- 2Marchán doubled to center, Castellanos scored and Stott scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 69%
- ML WSH +210 / PHI -255
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 67.8%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -223
- WSH +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 5.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +130 Elo | PHI 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–37 | Road vs home | 41–224th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 28th of 301445 | Elo rating | 15452nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–65 | 66–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 50–55 |
| Underdog | 62–46 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 69–60 | 58–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 15–23 PHI in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 38.