Washington Nationals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Stanton homered to left center (451 feet), Bellinger scored.1–5
- 3Stanton doubled to left, Bellinger scored, Goldschmidt scored and Judge scored.1–3
- 3Abrams singled to left, Hassell III scored, Wood to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML WSH +165 / NYY -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.4%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -177
- WSH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 5.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +103 Elo | NYY 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–39 | Road vs home | 39–2813th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–66 | 59–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 47–64 |
| Underdog | 63–47 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 70–61 | 64–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.