Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Brady HouseBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brad LordPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4House singled to left, Chaparro scored, Crews scored, and House safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Simpson.7–4
- 4Adams scored, Crews safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Caminero, Chaparro to second.7–2
- 3Young doubled to left, House scored.7–1
- 3Pereira hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Lowe scored.7–0
- 2B. Lowe homered to right (367 feet), Pereira scored, Gray scored and Williams scored.6–0
- 2Williams walked, B. Seymour scored, Gray to second, Pereira to third.2–0
- 2Pereira reached on infield single to third, J. Lowe scored on error, B. Seymour to second, B. Seymour safe at third on throwing error by third baseman House.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TB -145 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- TB: Elo 58.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.5 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +4 | TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +58 Elo | TB 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 3032–36 | Road vs home | 26–4129th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 143528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–67 | 65–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–42 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 42–25 | 63–51 |
| Overs–unders | 59–76 | 71–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–1 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.