Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Garver hit sacrifice fly to right, Polanco scored.5–6
- 7Caminero doubled to left, Díaz scored and Simpson scored.4–6
- 7Young hit sacrifice fly to center, Suárez scored.4–4
- 6Gray hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Lowe scored, Mangum to third.3–4
- 6Caminero homered to left center (390 feet).3–3
- 4Polanco homered to right center (408 feet).3–2
- 4Rodríguez homered to right center (359 feet).2–2
- 4Raleigh homered to right (371 feet).1–2
- 1J. Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to second, B. Lowe scored, Caminero out at second.0–2
- 1Caminero singled to left, Díaz scored, B. Lowe to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +12 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +16 Elo | TB 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3032–37 | Road vs home | 35–3318th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–82 | 70–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 26–61 | 28–42 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 42–25 |
| Overs–unders | 75–63 | 61–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–8 TB in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.