Seattle Mariners at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hurston WaldrepPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh homered to right (418 feet).10–2
- 8Naylor homered to right (404 feet), Arozarena scored and Rodríguez scored.9–2
- 7Crawford singled to center, Polanco scored.6–2
- 7Suárez homered to left (366 feet).5–2
- 7Rodríguez homered to center (441 feet), Arozarena scored.4–2
- 6M. Harris II hit sacrifice fly to center, Baldwin scored, Kim to third.2–2
- 4Olson homered to center (459 feet).2–1
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (422 feet), Raleigh scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML SEA +105 / ATL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +21 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Hurston Waldrep: team allows 1.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +40 Elo | ATL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3032–40 | Road vs home | 34–3321st of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 14th of 301509 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–85 | 68–73 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 26–63 | 36–52 |
| Underdog | 30–22 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders | 77–64 | 67–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–4 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.